SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152314
NMZ000-160045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2020
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152314Z - 160045Z
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
TSTMS WHICH INITIATED EARLIER ALONG THE RATON MESA HAVE RECENTLY
INTENSIFIED OVER SERN COLFAX COUNTY WITH ADDITION STORM DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING OVER WRN HARDING COUNTY AS OF 23Z. RUC PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT
OVERLY MOIST /LOWEST 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIO OF 8-8.5 G PER KG/.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT FEATURES STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WHICH WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. WHILE
DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES REMAIN LESS THAN 30 KT /PER TCC
PROFILER/...THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SERVE TO
MAINTAIN A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
03-04Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE.
..MEAD.. 09/15/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34580489 35740525 36640512 36760462 36720369 35900324
34990318 34370355 34290433 34580489
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