SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172059
NMZ000-AZZ000-172230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SE AZ/SW NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 172059Z - 172230Z
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS S OF THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER ERN AZ. SPARSE COVERAGE AND THE
MODEST MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY SWD OVER ERN
AZ...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S HAVE SPREAD WWD
INTO SE AZ IN THE POST-FRONTAL ELY FLOW. INVOF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING HAVE
RESULTED IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR NEW STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL STORMS /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT/...WHICH MAY
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
GUSTS. AT THE PRESENT TIME...STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A LITTLE TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...BUT THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS AFTERNOON.
..THOMPSON.. 09/17/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...PSR...
LAT...LON 31370891 32180973 32851037 33251046 33451021 33310969
33200922 33060821 32360739 31430745 31370891
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment