MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2023

ACUS11 KWNS 211826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211826
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-212030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN OK/SWRN MO/NWRN AR/N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211826Z - 212030Z

INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHING
ROUGHLY FROM FAR SERN NEB SSWWD TO JUST E OF ICT /WICHITA KS/...AND
THEN SWWD ACROSS NWRN OK INTO THE SERN TX PANHANDLE. ANALYSIS ALSO
DEPICTS A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT...PARALLEL TO AND ROUGHLY 50 MI
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT.

THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MOISTENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS YIELDED SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH A SLOWLY WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION.
A LINE OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS FAR SERN
KS AND INTO ADJACENT WRN MO...WHICH COULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED WITH
TIME AS THE PRE-CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES DESTABILIZING.
MEANWHILE...STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS N CENTRAL
AND NERN OK AND ADJACENT PARTS OF KS...WHICH SHOULD EXPAND SWWD
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT AND/OR SURFACE FRONT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG -- APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS. INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAY EXHIBIT SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO LINEAR ORGANIZATION SHOULD OCCUR. GENERALLY
VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS LIMITED TORNADO POTENTIAL...WITH
GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL LIKELY TO BE HAIL INITIALLY...AND THEN MORE
LIKELY TO INCLUDE LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AS LINEAR STORM MODE
EVOLVES.

..GOSS.. 09/21/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 38419331 38139217 37579194 34899350 33419568 33489872
36389726 36759681 37009473 38419331

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.