SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251832
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-252030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL KS...NWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL
OK...ERN PARTS OF TX PANHANDLE.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251832Z - 252030Z
SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE OVER DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON AS BAND OF CONVECTION INTENSIFIES AND TRANSLATES EWD
OVER AREA.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE LOW OVER N-CENTRAL KS VICINITY
RSL-HLC...WITH COLLOCATED SFC TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT SWWD TO
BETWEEN DDC-PTT...AND WSWWD ACROSS EXTREME NWRN TX PANHANDLE.
MEANWHILE...MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PIVOTING SEWD FROM
SERN CO...WITH ASSOCIATED BELT OF DVPA/ASCENT EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE
COLD FRONT AND CONTRIBUTE TO PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON. PREFRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS HAS BEEN
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING PAST COUPLE HOURS FROM
ERN TX PANHANDLE NEWD OVER PORTIONS S-CENTRAL KS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN ELEVATED...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS...RUC SOUNDINGS...AND
SPECKLED ECHO CHARACTER AND RELATIVELY FAST MOVING NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL CELLS. HOWEVER...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF TSTMS IN THIS
BAND IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME TSTMS PRODUCING SVR HAIL AND ISOLATED
STG-SVR GUSTS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS PROSPECTIVE INFLOW LAYER HEATS
DIABATICALLY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AND EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS
BECOME SFC-BASED. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MRGL...WITH SFC DEW POINTS
MIXING INTO MID-UPPER 40S F AHEAD OF PRECIP BAND. ACCORDINGLY
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD MLCAPE IN 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE...CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN AUTOMATED MESOANALYSES ARE INDICATING
SO FAR BECAUSE OF BACKGROUND RUC TENDENCY TO DRY THIS SFC
ENVIRONMENT TOO MUCH AND TOO FAST. STG UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP
TO OFFSET SWLY SFC WINDS...IN SUPPORT OF AT LEAST MRGL DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR FOR SVR. EVEN WITH MIXING NOT AS INTENSE AS
PROGGED...INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN LOW LEVELS WILL AID
POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS TO REACH SFC.
..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 34960112 36839952 38119800 37859723 37199703 36199790
35349925 34890033 34790089 34960112
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