MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2036

ACUS11 KWNS 270628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270628
NCZ000-VAZ000-270800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 270628Z - 270800Z

TSTMS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS FAR NERN NC AND ACTIVITY TRACKING NNEWD
ALONG AND S/E OF THE NC OUTER BANKS COULD POSE A THREAT FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR BRIEF TORNADO. GIVEN THE SMALL
AREAL COVERAGE AND SHORT DURATION /THROUGH 09-10Z/ OF THESE
THREATS...A WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND MODEL DATA INDICATED A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REGION BY
12Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO SLY AND THEN SWLY
ACROSS ERN NC/SERN VA...ALLOWING FOR THE NWD RETURN OF RICHER
MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60-LOWER 70S/ AND A SLIGHT
RISE IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES /6.5 C/KM/ ACCOMPANYING A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE ARE
SUPPORTING THE ONGOING DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NERN NC. INCREASING
SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF THE EWD
MOVING TROUGH IN THE OH/TN VALLEYS ATOP A 30-35 KT SLY LLJ ALONG THE
NC COAST WILL MAINTAIN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KT. THESE
KINEMATICS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED ROTATING STORMS...AS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OFFSHORE /S OF HSE/ PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATED 0-1 KM SHEAR 20-25 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
THUS...ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION NWD THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD
SUPPORT A SMALL THREAT AREA ACROSS FAR NERN NC AND THE OUTER BANKS
FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS...SOME POSSIBLY PRODUCING A STRONG WIND
GUST AND/OR BRIEF TORNADO.

..PETERS.. 09/27/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

LAT...LON 34937608 35457670 36007667 36547606 36617550 35597509
34817561 34937608

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