MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2040

ACUS11 KWNS 280404
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280404
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-280530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2040
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL THROUGH NE IL INTO CNTRL AND SRN IN THROUGH
WRN OH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 745...

VALID 280404Z - 280530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 745 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL PERSIST NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...MAINLY FROM E CNTRL AND NERN IL THROUGH NW IND. SWD
DEVELOPMENT INTO SRN PARTS OF WW INCLUDING S CNTRL IL IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
FARTHER EAST INTO SRN IND AND WRN OH WHERE A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED
SOON.

BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM SWRN LOWER MI...NWRN IND INTO
EXTREME E CNTRL IL MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT. THE STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITHIN AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND ASCENT WITHIN
EXIT REGION OF ESEWD MOVING UPPER JET. STORMS ARE APPROACHING THE
ERN EDGE OF WW AND QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR SW ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IF AT ALL. SURFACE DATA INDICATE STRONGEST
PRESSURE FALLS EXTEND FROM EXTREME E-CNTRL PA THROUGH NW IND INTO
SRN LOWER MI. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE ZONE OF DEEPER
FORCING IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE SWRN EXTENSION OF THE COLD
FRONT SUGGESTING SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO REMAINING PARTS OF WW 745 IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN IND
WHERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY INCREASING.

..DIAL.. 09/28/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON 40618734 40228464 39298523 39558816 39268906 39838943
41478756 40618734

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.