SWODY1
SPC AC 140520
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2009
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN PLAINS...
WSWLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AS A
BROAD MID-LEVEL JET MOVES OUT OF THE BASE OF A PACIFIC COAST
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES AND CNTRL PLAINS. ON THE SRN
EDGE OF THIS FEATURE...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
LOCATED FROM NORTH TX ESEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON...WARM AIR AROUND 700 MB WILL LIKELY KEEP
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ISOLATED. IF A FEW STORMS CAN INITIATE
ACROSS NORTH TX AND LA...40-45 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND 70-75 F SFC
DEWPOINTS EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE WET DOWNBURSTS.
...ERN GULF COAST STATES...
A LARGE BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
ONGOING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS CONVECTION AS SEVERAL MINOR
IMPULSES MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
ENCOURAGE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE FL PANHANDLE
EWD ACROSS SRN GA INTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOW A DEEP MOIST LAYER WITH 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ISOLATED AND SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
..BROYLES/JEWELL.. 10/14/2009
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