SWODY1
SPC AC 260057
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009
VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN TX
INTO SERN OK...
...SRN OK TO CENTRAL TX...
TRENDS IN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SSEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE A MID-UPPER LEVEL STREAM OF FAST WLY FLOW WAS
BEGINNING TO IMPINGE UPON SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA/WA. FOUR CORNERS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SSEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN
MEXICO THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS ACCOMPANYING STRONG NLY MID/UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SPREAD EQUATORWARD. THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN A
MORE SLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN TX AS IS
CURRENTLY INDICATED BY WSR-88D VWP/WIND PROFILER DATA...AND SUPPORT
A CONTINUED INFLUX OF A MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY SWWD
THROUGH CENTRAL OK TO SW TX. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY SWD ATTENDANT TO AMPLIFYING FOUR
CORNERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...COMPARED TO THE NRN TX/OK PORTION WHICH
HAS BECOME PARALLEL TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN TX/FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL OK IN THE VICINITY OF A LEAD WIND SHIFT MOVING SWD AHEAD OF
THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /35-40 KT/ IS SUFFICIENT
FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT HAIL AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY INITIAL DISCRETE STORMS. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES INDICATED SURFACE BASED INHIBITION INCREASING FROM N-S FROM
OK INTO FAR N TX. THIS TREND WOULD SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SURFACE BASED STORMS SHOULD BE WANING. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT
DEVELOP THROUGH 02-03Z OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX /DAL-FTW METRO AREA/
MAY HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WHERE BACKED
SURFACE WINDS ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE.
MODELS SUGGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A GROWING
CONVECTIVE LINE/CLUSTER SOUTHWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL
TX WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO AT LEAST
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
..PETERS.. 10/26/2009
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