SWODY1
SPC AC 250017
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0717 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2009
VALID 250100Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...
SCATTERED MOSTLY WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED IN
A PRE-FRONTAL ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION/WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING. THIS MAY SHIFT EAST OF NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 02-03Z...BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN INTO COASTAL NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 04-06Z.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST A LOW RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT COMPLETELY
DIMINISH UNTIL SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS DURING THE 03-05Z TIME FRAME...AND THE CAPE COD AREA
INTO DOWNEAST MAINE TOWARD 07-09Z.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ABOVE THE GROUND NEAR
ONGOING CONVECTION...SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM COULD WORK ITS WAY TO THE
SURFACE. BUT...A LINGERING SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER ACROSS
MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...APPEAR LIKELY TO MITIGATE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
...GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...PARTS OF ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN
BROADER SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTRIBUTED TO SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES FOR SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF
THIS ACTIVITY ALREADY APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF ONE JET
STREAK COULD MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH AT LEAST
THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME. AND... AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO OR NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.
..KERR.. 10/25/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment