SWODY1
SPC AC 131620
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009
VALID 131630Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NATION IS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
MEANWHILE...SEVERAL FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT
EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. THESE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
...WEST TX/EASTERN NM...
TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
PARTS OF EASTERN NM/WEST TX WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...CREATING A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE MLCAPE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SUGGEST SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. IF A STORM OR TWO CAN FORM ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WEST OF AMA/LBB...POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR HAIL.
THE THREAT OF THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT
SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
...EAST TX TO MS...
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA. DESPITE
RELATIVELY HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL THETAE...12Z RAOBS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS.
SOME RISK EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST OVER A BROAD
AREA...BUT THE THREAT DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO WARRANT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.
..HART/GARNER.. 10/13/2009
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