SWODY1
SPC AC 181937
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2009
VALID 182000Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ERN AZ/WRN NM...
LATE MORNING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF ERN AZ INTO WRN NM AS A PAIR OF MID
LEVEL IMPULSES TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...WHERE THE AIR MASS
HAS BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE. TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR/SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA HAS RESULTED IN MINOR SPATIAL EXPANSION
OF THE GENERAL TSTM AREA OVER NERN AZ/NWRN NM.
ELSEWHERE...NO CHANGES NEEDED.
..PETERS.. 10/18/2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2009/
THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR MID OCTOBER ALONG WITH THE MEAGER BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...
SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WEAK CONVECTION OVER BOTH
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN AZ/WRN
NM.
THE APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH FROM OFF THE PAC COAST AND ACCOMPANYING
MID LEVEL COOLING AND ASCENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
WEAK CONVECTION AFTER DARK NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
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