SWODY1
SPC AC 131250
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009
VALID 131300Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW IS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE ZONAL REGIME OVER THE
CONUS AS ONE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND A STRONG WAVE NEAR 41 N AND 136 W PROGRESSES INLAND OVER
CENTRAL/NRN CA. IN BETWEEN...A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS WILL EJECT EWD/ENEWD TO THE PLAINS BUT LOSE AMPLITUDE
IN CONFLUENT FLOW...AND A DOWNSTREAM SPEED MAX WILL MOVE OFF THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.
THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA IN THE CONUS WILL BE FROM THE
NW GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HERE...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA
WILL PERSIST IN AN EXTREMELY MOIST /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
MID-UPPER 70S AND PW VALUES OF 2.25-2.60 INCHES/ AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. SEVERAL
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION EXPECTED FROM THE
ARKLATEX EWD INTO NRN MS...JUST N OF THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
POOR LAPSE RATES...WARM PROFILES ALOFT...AND WEAK WARM SECTOR
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AND SPREAD ENEWD TODAY FROM NRN
NM/SRN CO TOWARD KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EJECTING MID LEVEL
WAVE...AND RESIDUAL INSTABILITY PLUME SAMPLED BY THE 12Z ABQ
SOUNDING. ALONG THE PAC COAST...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
SPREADS INLAND /PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA/.
..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 10/13/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment