SWODY1
SPC AC 111244
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2009
VALID 111300Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER BENIGN CONVECTIVE REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAY 1 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS
IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND A PRONOUNCED NRN STREAM FROM NRN ROCKIES TO
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SEPARATING THE
CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER FL AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT NWD/INLAND ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NW
GULF COAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS EVIDENCED BY THE SLOW NWD
SPREAD OF CONVECTION OFF THE TX COAST THIS MORNING.
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED/WIDELY-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED IN THE ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WAA ALONG THE
RETREATING BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE GULF COAST...AS A SUBTROPICAL
TROUGH/JET STREAK EJECTS ENEWD FROM NRN BAJA CA TO THE SRN PLAINS
AND MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER HEIGHT GRADIENTS
ALOFT AND RESULTANT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE N OF
THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR. THIS POOR PHASING OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND
THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR...AS WELL AS POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WARM PROFILES ALOFT...WILL LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS INLAND.
..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 10/11/2009
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