SWODY2
SPC AC 070456
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MUCH OF OK INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHWEST AR...
...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALBERTA WILL PHASE WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. AHEAD OF THESE UPPER FEATURES...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD WITH
UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN MO BY
09/00Z. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS FROM OK/AR/MO AND HELP TO
SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD
FRONT FROM SOUTHERN KS INTO CENTRAL MO. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
TX/OK IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HOWEVER...THE
PRIMARY RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN
OK AND TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT INTO MO /PER GFS SOLUTION/. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL INVOLVE
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...WHICH COULD BE LIMITED GREATLY IF THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH SPREADS NORTHWARD FASTER
THAN FORECAST AND OVERSPREADS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA BEFORE MUCH
DAYTIME HEATING CAN OCCUR.
..HART.. 10/07/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment