SWODY2
SPC AC 100555
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2009
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL ON
SUNDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/DRIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST/FL
AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE A COOL/STABLE AIRMASS OTHERWISE
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES AMIDST EXPANSIVE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
...SOUTH GA/NORTH FL...
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DIURNALLY ALONG/IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF A STALLING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTH GA/NORTH FL. BUT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...MODEST DESTABILIZATION/WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WEAKENING NATURE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE/LOW LEVEL FLOW PORTENDS NOTHING
MORE THAN A ROGUE SEVERE THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
...SOUTHEAST TX COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
MARINE WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT MOIST AIRMASS COULD RETURN TOWARD
THE IMMEDIATE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
IF THIS INLAND PROGRESSION OCCURS...AMPLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR COULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SURFACE BASED SEVERE RISK ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...ALTHOUGH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR/WARM THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
HINDER SUCH A THREAT BEYOND THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES. AS
SUCH...EVEN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
AT LEAST ISOLATED ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE/EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST/NORTH TX TO
THE ARKLATEX/SOUTHEAST OK AMIDST A WARM ADVECTION/ELEVATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT REGIME. SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL APPEARS RATHER LOW LARGELY
OWING TO WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND INITIALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT/POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
..GUYER.. 10/10/2009
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