SWODY2
SPC AC 110547
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2009
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
OVER THE CONUS. TO THE NORTH OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...A PROGRESSIVE/OPEN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES. COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS OVER
MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL CONFINE TSTM POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST STATES...AS A WARM FRONT/MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS
RETURNS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TX COAST/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
ADJACENT GULF COAST STATES.
...GULF COAST REGION/SOUTHEAST STATES...
WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION...UPPER JET
ENTRANCE REGION AND/OR A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION/SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MAINLY DIURNAL TSTM POTENTIAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE RETREATING
WARM/MARINE FRONT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODESTLY STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD COINCIDE WITH THE RETREATING BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES /NAMELY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF AL AND GA/.
HOWEVER...LIMITED LIFT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...SHOULD PRECLUDE A DAMAGING WIND/BRIEF
TORNADO THREAT.
..GUYER.. 10/11/2009
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