SWODY2
SPC AC 140551
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2009
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY...AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE EASTERN STATES. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST REGION...WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS AND AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS...A
COOL/STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT TSTM POTENTIAL.
...GULF COAST...
SHOWERS/TSTMS...PERHAPS A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE...WILL BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW/SOUTHEAST ADVANCING
FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH
GRADUAL LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS FOCUSED ACROSS THE EAST GULF
COAST...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT A MOIST AIRMASS /70+ F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND/OR ONGOING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LA/UPPER TX COAST INTO
SOUTHERN MS AND PERHAPS SOUTHWEST AL/WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. BUT GIVEN
THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS RELATED TO THE WARM/MOIST
SECTOR...LARGE SCALE FORCING/STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MODEST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES HINDERING PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/VIGOR
EVEN WITH AMPLE DIABATIC HEATING AND NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE BASED CINH.
FURTHERMORE...VEERING/RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE AS COMPARED TO
THE 00Z NAM...ALSO LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING BEYOND AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND OR TORNADO RISK. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...A CATEGORICAL
SLIGHT RISK DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
..GUYER.. 10/14/2009
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