SWODY2
SPC AC 261726
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2009
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SRN PLAINS UPR WAVE IS PROGGED TO EJECT ENE AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE
TN/OH VLYS ON TUESDAY AS A POWERFUL JET CARVES OUT A DEEP COLD
TROUGH/UPR LOW ACROSS THE WRN STATES. IN THE LWR-LVLS...A FRONTAL
WAVE ASSOCD WITH THE FORMER DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE LWR MS
VLY EARLY TUESDAY INTO THE MID-OH VLY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. TRAILING
THE LOW...A CDFNT WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE SRN STATES...REACHING
ERN TN...WRN GA AND THE WRN FL PNHDL BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WRMFNT WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO PARTS OF SRN GA AND NRN
FL.
...GULF STATES/SERN U.S...
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY
BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CSTL AREA. THIS
WOULD TEND TO REINFORCE THE WARM/MARINE FRONT AND LIKELY KEEP
PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. NONETHELESS... EXPECT AT LEAST A
MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF THE FL PNHDL
AND PERHAPS SWRN GA BY AFTN. PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED
TO ONLY GRAZE THE REGION DURING THE AFTN...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE
SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE A FEW TSTMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A STORM COULD BRIEFLY ROTATE AND PRODUCE A
DMGG WIND GUST AND/OR TORNADO. THUS...HAVE INTRODUCED A FIVE
PERCENT SVR THREAT ALONG THE SRN GULF CSTL AREA.
...PAC NW...
SPORADIC TSTMS WILL ALREADY BE ONGOING ALONG CSTL ORE/WA EARLY
TUESDAY AS MINUS 30 DEG C H5 TEMPERATURES SPREAD SEWD WITH 100 KT
MID-LVL SPEED MAX. TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY PEAK BY EARLY
AFTN AND THEN DECREASE AS H7-H5 TEMPERATURE BEGIN TO WARM DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTN. UNTIL THEN...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL...PARTICULARLY IN THE ORE CSTL RANGES INVOF MARINE
LAYER/STRONGEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
..RACY.. 10/26/2009
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