SWODY3
SPC AC 110709
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2009
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER
THE CONUS ON TUESDAY. PRIMARY TSTM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF COAST STATES AS A MODIFIED GULF
AIRMASS RETURNS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE/SPEED MAXIMA CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE GRADUAL NORTHWARD
RETURN OF A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX/LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY. BENEATH 25-35 KT WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...A FEW
SUSTAINED STRONGER STORMS ARE CONCEIVABLE /MAINLY NORTH TX/ IF
SUFFICIENT DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THE
WEST-EAST EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS LIKELY TO EXTEND ACROSS
NORTH TX OR THE TX/OK RED RIVER VICINITY TO THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EARLY DAY CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH LIFT OTHERWISE
LIMITED ACROSS THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR. AS SUCH...EVEN WITH MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS...THE OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
..GUYER.. 10/11/2009
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