SWODY3
SPC AC 130729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF
COAST STATES...
...CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST...
IT IS PROBABLE THAT SHOWERS/TSTMS...PERHAPS SOME STRONG OR
SEVERE...WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE
LOW/SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
VICINITY...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG A ROUGHLY WEST-EAST
EFFECTIVE FRONT ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. AS THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO STEADILY AMPLIFY ON THURSDAY...WITH
A DEEPENING SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER TROUGH AND HEIGHT FALLS FOCUSED
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST...A WARM/RATHER MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE
ADVECTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEAST ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOR PREFRONTAL DIABATIC
HEATING WILL BE PARTICULARLY STEEP/STRONG...THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS
/AROUND 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND A STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER/LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO OR TWO. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT AND/OR PREFRONTAL CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION MAY KEEP THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT GENERALLY CONFINED TO 75-100 MILES FROM THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...A SEVERE
RISK MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
..GUYER.. 10/13/2009
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