SWODY3
SPC AC 180711
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2009
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TUESDAY AS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD WITH MODEL
FORECASTS SHOWING AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED FROM WEST TX NWD
INTO WCNTRL KS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION
EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING WHEN THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE CONSISTENT DEVELOPING SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE
POSITION OF THE TROUGH BY THAT TIME. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL
HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE RELIABILITY
OF THE MODELS AND MOISTURE RETURN...WILL NOT ADD A 5 PERCENT
PROBABILITY ATTM.
..BROYLES.. 10/18/2009
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