SWOD48
SPC AC 210856
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVING A SURFACE COLD
FRONT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST DAY 4 /SAT OCT 24/ AS A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH SHIFTS ENEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. MEANWHILE...MEAN
LONG-WAVE TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...AS THE NEXT
SHORT-WAVE FEATURE DIGS SEWD OUT OF CANADA.
LITTLE SEVERE THREAT IS EVIDENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DAY 4...AND
THEN RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH DAY 6
/MON OCT 26/ IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...BOTH MODELS DEPICT TROUGH RE-AMPLIFICATION OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS...THOUGH DIFFERING SUBSTANTIALLY IN TIMING AND
INTENSITY. WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD EVOLVE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...LACK OF CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES ANY MORE THAN A PASSING
MENTION AT THIS POINT.
..GOSS.. 10/21/2009
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