SWOD48
SPC AC 230820
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2009
VALID 261200Z - 311200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE DAY4
PERIOD WITH EVOLUTION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
CONUS. INTO THE DAY5 PERIOD IT BECOMES LESS CLEAR HOW ENERGY WILL
EJECT FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. GFS
IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
ACROSS LA INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
FARTHER NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WITH THIS FEATURE. NEEDLESS
TO SAY AIRMASS RECOVERY ACROSS THE SRN U.S. WILL BE STRONGLY
MODULATED BY INTENSITY AND LATITUDINAL POSITION OF THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
WILL NOT INTRODUCE ORGANIZED SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..DARROW.. 10/23/2009
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