SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010444
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-010615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2051
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS TO WESTERN IA/NORTHWEST
MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 010444Z - 010615Z
STRONG/SOME SEVERE TSTMS WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY RISK SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS/NEB
INTO WESTERN IA/NORTHWEST MO. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/SPREAD ENE-WARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. ALONG WITH THE INITIAL
BRUNT OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT ROCKIES
UPPER TROUGH...THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF
A STRONG PLAINS CAP/ELEVATED MIX LAYER. A SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET /50-60 KT ALREADY NOTED AROUND 1 KM PER DERIVED WIND
DATA ACROSS KS/ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME...WITH 14C
850MB SOURCE REGION DEWPOINTS PER TOPEKA AND LAMONT OK OBSERVED
RAOBS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF A 850 MB WARM FRONT. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/MODEST BUOYANCY WITHIN A
WELL-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/SOME
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH THE RISK FOR HAIL OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE RISK WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MARGINAL/ISOLATED
TO PRELUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT.
..GUYER.. 10/01/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 42639568 42249465 40369326 38469364 38039521 39419619
42049726 42639568
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