SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012302
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-020000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2055
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT THU OCT 01 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...EXTREME SWRN AR...CENTRAL-NCENTRAL/NERN
TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 752...
VALID 012302Z - 020000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 752
CONTINUES.
22Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SWWD OUT OF WRN AR/ERN OK INTO NCENTRAL TX...WITH A DRYLINE
INTERSECTION NEAR FTW. LINE SEGMENTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE
SSEWD SAGGING COLD FRONT OVER NCENTRAL TX...WHERE LOW LEVEL FORCING
IS STRONGEST. MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE DRYLINE
FROM FTW TO JCT...WHERE WEAKER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND GREATER
CROSSING ANGLE BETWEEN THE LINE OF FORCING AND UPPER FLOW/DEEP SHEAR
VECTORS IS PRESENT. AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO EJECT ENE TOWARD THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING S INTO CENTRAL AND ERN TX. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO LOW LEVEL
FORCING...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD QUASI-LINEAR
STORM ORGANIZATION. IN THE MEAN TIME...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40 KT AND MODERATE MLCAPE VALUES /AROUND 1500 J PER KG
ACCORDING TO SFCOA DATA/ WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHORT LIVED
SUPERCELLS S OF THE COLD FRONT /AS OBSERVED IN RECENT HI-RES RADAR
DATA/ FOR ANOTHER HR OR TWO...POSING A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.
..GARNER.. 10/01/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 34029710 34039419 30819605 30349950 34029710
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