SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071130
VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-071330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2077
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 AM CDT WED OCT 07 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...CNTRL AND SRN VT...WRN MA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 071130Z - 071330Z
LOW TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS
MARGINAL AND TOO LIMITED IN DURATION AND SPATIAL EXTENT TO WARRANT A
WW.
EARLY THIS MORNING A NARROW LINE OF LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING THROUGH ERN NY AT AROUND 40 KT. THIS LINE HAS DEVELOPED
WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH ERN PERIPHERY OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH. THE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SWLY 45-60 KT FLOW
BETWEEN 1-6 KM...AND SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM MAY CONTINUE TO BE
TRANSPORTED DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG. STORMS MAY REMAIN
AT PEAK INTENSITY AS THEY CROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND WHERE COOLER NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ONGOING AREAS OF
RAIN WILL LIKELY SERVE AS IMPEDIMENTS TO A SUSTAINED WIND THREAT.
..DIAL.. 10/07/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...
LAT...LON 42627391 44047319 44297254 43057257 41777337 41907438
42627391
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