MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2103

ACUS11 KWNS 100420
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100420
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-100815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...SW NEB

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 100420Z - 100815Z

HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NE CO...SE WY INTO
WRN AND CNTRL NEB. SOME SPOTS APPEAR LIKELY TO RECEIVE SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN ENHANCEMENT OF CLOUD TOPS
OVER SE WY AND WRN NEB WHERE THE RUC IS ANALYZING A WELL-DEFINED
VORTICITY MAX. SOUTH OF THE VORTICITY MAX...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS IS MAXIMIZED WITH GPS-WX
DATA SUGGESTING PRECIPITATELY WATER VALUES ARE AS HIGH AS .50 INCHES
ACROSS NE CO. IN ADDITION...SFC WINDS MAY BECOME MORE VEERED WITH
TIME ACROSS WRN NEB AND NE CO HELPING TO ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS GENERATE
PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF .4 TO .6 INCHES FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 12Z
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA SUGGESTING SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. THIS HAS BEEN
CONFIRMED ACROSS PARTS OF SRN WY WHERE NOAA MESONET DATA SHOWS
OBSERVED 3 HOUR PRECIPITATION OF .7 TO .8 INCHES IN THE MEDICINE
BOWS AND THE SNOWY RANGE. IN ADDITION...SFC WINDS ARE ALREADY IN THE
20 TO 30 KT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND THIS WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING
SNOW. THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BUT THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MCD
AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 10/10/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41680356 41720275 41710146 41410094 41040073 40650059
40160110 39840207 39790306 39630389 39700435 39790489
40710532 41190513 41520441 41680356

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