SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202033
NMZ000-AZZ000-202200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST AZ AND SOUTHERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 770...
VALID 202033Z - 202200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 770
CONTINUES.
SEVERE TSTM WATCH 770 CONTINUES UNTIL 00Z FOR PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST AZ AND SOUTHERN NM...WITH SEVERE HAIL/WINDS POSSIBLE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO
DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AZ AS OF MID AFTERNOON. WITH A MOIST
LOW LEVEL INFLUX CONTINUING TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
EASTERN AZ AND MUCH OF NM PER GPS DERIVED DATA...AMPLE LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS/INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN
INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL NM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GRADUAL COOLING
ALOFT /18Z TUCSON OBSERVED RAOB REFLECTED ABOUT 3 DEG C OF COOLING
BETWEEN 700-500 MB SINCE 12Z/ AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SOME WELL-ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR WIND. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH TO THE EAST OF WW 770 IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..GUYER.. 10/20/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...
LAT...LON 31501014 32980956 34940798 34910511 32150641 31501014
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