MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2124

ACUS11 KWNS 221514
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221514
LAZ000-TXZ000-221645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN TX THROUGH CNTRL AND SWRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 771...

VALID 221514Z - 221645Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 771 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON INITIALLY ACROSS EXTREME ERN TX
AND WRN LA BUT SPREADING EWD THROUGH LA WITH TIME.

LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NWD AND EXTENDS FROM SERN
LA NWWD INTO EXTREME NERN TX WHERE IT INTERSECTS A COLD FRONT. A
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDS ACROSS EXTREME ERN TX NEAR THE TX/LA
BORDER MOVING EAST AT AROUND 20 KT. A MOIST WARM SECTOR HAS ADVECTED
INLAND ACROSS LA SOUTH OF WARM FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. A STRONG 50 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST IN WARM SECTOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD
OF EJECTING VORT MAX THAT IS THE REMNANT OF HURRICANE RICK. EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS REMAIN LIKELY WITHIN THE LINE AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE
MORE DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE. DESPITE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 10/22/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 29509308 29759364 30809363 32169374 31999258 31019203
29889198 29509308

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