MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2130

ACUS11 KWNS 231151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231151
FLZ000-ALZ000-231315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PNHDL INTO FAR SRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231151Z - 231315Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH TSTMS
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

WHILE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN SPORADIC...VOLUMETRIC RADAR AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE INDICATED A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS OVER SWRN AL INTO THE WRN FL
PNHDL. AS OF 1135Z...THE STRONGEST STORMS EXISTED IN A BAND FROM
ESCAMBIA COUNTY AL SWD THROUGH ESCAMBIA COUNTY FL INTO BALDWIN
COUNTY AL. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF STORMS...A LARGER-SCALE
BOWING SEGMENT WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO THE COAST JUST SW OF PNS
WITH A MOTION OF 220/30-35 KT.

BASED ON LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...THIS BAND OF TSTMS IS SITUATED
WITHIN A NARROW WARM SECTOR AIR MASS...CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. MODIFICATION OF RUC
PROXIMITY SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS THAT AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG.
MOREOVER...AREA VWPS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE VEERING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES. WHILE THE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY AND NEWD DISPLACEMENT
OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH TIME SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST SURFACE-BASED STORMS INTO
MID MORNING.

..MEAD.. 10/23/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30418720 31048703 31178646 31148553 30828510 30188477
29838506 30018602 30208681 30418720

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