MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2134

ACUS11 KWNS 241620
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241619
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-241815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2134
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NC...CNTRL AND ERN VA...MD...DEL...SE
PA AND NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241619Z - 241815Z

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE FROM CNTRL NC
AND VA...MD AND DEL...POSSIBLY AS FAR NE AS SERN VA AND NJ THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL PA SWWD THROUGH WRN VA INTO THE WRN
CAROLINAS. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE OH THROUGH TN VALLEYS
EJECTS NEWD REACHING THE NERN STATES BY EARLY EVENING. RICHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC TO NEAR 70 IN SERN NC ARE ADVECTING NWD ALONG A STRONG 50+
KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF
THE WARM SECTOR...AND WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL FURTHER LIMIT MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 500-1000 J/KG. THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD POTENTIALLY SERVE AS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
IS POSSIBLE OVER ERN NC AND SERN VA WHERE STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING
IS CO-LOCATED WITH RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST ASCENT
ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WHERE ONLY A WEAK CAP EXISTS. OTHER
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG OFFSHORE BOUNDARIES AND WILL LIFT NWD
THROUGH ERN NC. STORMS SHOULD UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. GIVEN 50+ KT SSWLY DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LEWP/BOWING SEGMENTS AND
SUPERCELLS.

..DIAL.. 10/24/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON 35017702 34577835 36167937 39297703 40417537 39327469
35017702

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