SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271232
FLZ000-GAZ000-271400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...FL PNHDL INTO SWRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 271232Z - 271400Z
THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING. REGION WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK AT 13Z
AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS MORNING.
12Z LAND AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO
LIFT NWD THROUGH THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NRN FL
PENINSULA...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS FEATURE
SHOULD PIVOT NWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/ERN PNHDL AND SWRN GA BY
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...12Z TLH SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT ENVIRONMENT N
OF WARM FRONT IS ALREADY CLOSE TO SUPPORTING SURFACE-BASED
STORMS...AND MODIFICATION OF THESE DATA FOR CURRENT BUOY OB S OF AAF
/S OF WARM FRONT/ YIELDS MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND NO CAP.
CONCENTRATED ZONE OF PRESSURE FALLS FROM SERN MS EWD THROUGH THE FL
PNHDL AND SWRN GA ARE INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA
OCCURRING WHICH IS VERIFIED BY REGIONAL VWPS. THIS FORCING SHOULD
BE MAINTAINED ACROSS AREA THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE SHIFTING NWD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH MIGRATORY UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS
SUCH...EXPECT STRONGER STORMS CURRENTLY OBSERVED OFFSHORE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND IN CONCERT WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT. GIVEN THE
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS AND MODESTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS TORNADOES.
..MEAD.. 10/27/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...MOB...
LAT...LON 30158654 30728639 30948517 31158450 31058363 30368318
29818385 29558492 29718612 30158654
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