WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 753

WWUS20 KWNS 012331
SEL3
SPC WW 012331
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-020700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 630 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS TO 60 MILES SOUTH OF LONGVIEW
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 751...WW 752...

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/SEWD THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS SW
AR/NE TX/NW LA...WHILE OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS FORM IN THE WARM
SECTOR ACROSS SW AR IN A ZONE OF WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT. THE
COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT CLOSER TO THE
WARM FRONT IN AR...THOUGH GRADUAL WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY TONIGHT SUGGESTS THAT ANY TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29030.

...THOMPSON

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