SWODY1
SPC AC 160058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2009
VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED INVOF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING A SURFACE COLD FRONT -- CROSSING
SERN OK/NERN AND CENTRAL TX ATTM -- TO CONTINUE ITS SEWD PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM
THE ARKLATEX REGION SWD.
...E TX AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INVOF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT...FROM ERN OK SSWWD INTO NERN TX. INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE
MARGINAL...WITH LESS THAN 500 J/KG MOST UNSTABLE CAPE INDICATED BY
EVENING RAOBS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...AND CONFIRMED BY AN OVERALL
LACK OF LIGHTNING.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS...AIDED BY 50-PLUS KT SWLYS AT MID LEVELS. THUS -- AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODEST/DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THIS
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED.
..GOSS.. 11/16/2009
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