SWODY1
SPC AC 300054
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
VALID 300100Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NE/E TX INTO SRN AR/NRN LA...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED A STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL JET
EXTENDING FROM ERN OK/NERN TX TO THE OH VALLEY. THIS JET IS LOCATED
ALONG THE LEADING EXTENT OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING
ESEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW ALONG A SEWD ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REST OF EAST
TX AND LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THIS REGION...AN INFLOW OF MODEST MOISTURE RETURN /SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S/ CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH FORECAST TRENDS SUGGEST INSTABILITY
WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...THERE
REMAINS A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME /THROUGH 02-04Z/ THAT ANY SUSTAINED
STORMS WILL REALIZE THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR UP TO 40 KT FOR ORGANIZATION. THUS...THIS OUTLOOK HAS
INTRODUCED LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES. IN ADDITION TO A LOW
THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL...AN ISOLATED...BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR VALUES /0-1 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 20 KT PER 00Z SHV SOUNDING/.
...PARTS OF SRN AZ/SWRN NM/FAR WEST TX...
LIGHTNING TRENDS IN THE SWRN STATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DIMINISHING AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES AND DIFFLUENT AND DIVERGENT
UPPER FLOW REGIME ALONG NERN PERIPHERY OF THE GULF OF CA CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS SWD CONCURRENT WITH TRACK OF THE LOW.
..PETERS.. 11/30/2009
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