SWODY1
SPC AC 221610
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
VALID 221630Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NRN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND EXTREME SERN GA...
UPPER LOW OVER AL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NEWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EWD FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MS VALLY. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM SRN LA EWD INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
OCCLUDED/WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED WITHIN THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM SERN LA INTO FAR NRN FL...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING N-S
IN THE NERN GULF...WEST OF THE FL PENINSULA. AT MID MORNING...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ABOUT 60 NW OF PIE. WHILE MODERATE
INSTABILITY PERSISTED OVER THE NERN GULF WATERS...INSTABILITY WAS
WEAK OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN STORMS TO BACKBUILD AND
REMAIN OFFSHORE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THICKER CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION ARE LIKELY TO RESTRICT
WARMING/INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN FL. HOWEVER...AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S NEAR THE SRN EDGE OF THE THICKER
CLOUDS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY EXIST FOR STORMS TO MOVE/DEVELOP
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO...LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE AND UPPER FORCING SHIFTING
NWD AWAY FROM THIS REGION SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED.
..IMY/SMITH.. 11/22/2009
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