SWODY1
SPC AC 270019
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009
VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND
COAST...MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. OTHERWISE...STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE NATION...WITH LOW OR NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
AN AREA OF FOCUSED STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...ACCOMPANYING A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH...CONTRIBUTED TO SUFFICIENT
STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES FOR LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR/NORTH OF CHARLOTTE NC EARLIER THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SEEMS TO
HAVE WANED SOME AS FORCING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...AS STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING /500 MB COLD CORE
OF -30C/ AND LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A SOUTHWESTERLY 80-90 KT 500
MB JET STREAK SPREAD TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA...LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR
INCREASING STORMS DURING THE 03-09Z TIME FRAME. A SMALL LOW TOPPED
STORM CLUSTER COULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE BEFORE SPREADING
OFFSHORE...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE.
...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN AN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO THE
NORTH OF THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE CYCLONE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH OR OVERSPREAD PARTS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOWARD 09-12Z...BUT HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF STORMS STILL
SEEMS TO EXIST SOUTH/EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
..KERR.. 11/27/2009
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