SWODY1
SPC AC 121255
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST THU NOV 12 2009
VALID 121300Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
JET STREAK NOW CROSSING THE SRN APPALACHIANS SHOULD CONTINUE SEWD
TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW NC/SC UPR LOW TO REDEVELOP E OFF THE NC
CST TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AS BROAD...POSITIVE TILT UPSTREAM TROUGH
PROGRESSES E TO THE GRT BASIN. AT THE SFC...LOW NOW JUST S OF CAPE
LOOKOUT/MHK SHOULD EDGE ONLY VERY SLOWLY ENE OVER THE CSTL WATERS
TODAY...BEFORE RE-FORMING FARTHER S INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT/EARLY
FRI.
...NC OUTER BANKS...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSE FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SHOULD REMAIN THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR SFC-BASED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AS SELY LOW LVL
FLOW LINGERS IN ERN QUADRANT OF AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW. THE FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AND MOVE ONLY SLOWLY E WITH TIME. WHILE
THESE FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER QUASI-DISCRETE CONVECTION
ALONG IT...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING UPR
DIVERGENCE/DCVA WILL DIMINISH INSTABILITY...DESPITE LIKELIHOOD FOR
ADDITIONAL MID LVL COOLING /WITH EWD-DEVELOPING UPR LOW/...AND NWWD
PENETRATION OF SFC WARM SECTOR INTO PAMLICO SOUND.
GIVEN EXISTING WIND PROFILES...A VERY LOW THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO
OR PERHAPS A LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUST WILL PERSIST IN THE HATTERAS
AREA AND OVER ADJACENT PARTS OF PAMLICO SOUND THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 11/12/2009
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