SWODY1
SPC AC 291617
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1017 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...AZ/NM INTO SWRN TX...
A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAGGING SWD
ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT IN 12Z TUS RAOB WILL
CONTRIBUTE TOWARD POCKETS OF MODEST CAPE VALUES /AOB 500 J PER KG/
AS SURFACE HEATING OCCURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST PROBABILITY
OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE
CENTRAL-SRN AZ/NM BORDER WHERE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE AND
GREATEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME FOCUSED. GIVEN
THE RATHER COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DEPICTED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND LIMITED CAPE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
REMAIN VERY LOW.
...ERN HALF OF TX INTO THE MID SOUTH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
NRN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING SWD ACROSS THE UPPER-MID MS VALLEY REGION
WILL MAINTAIN TIGHT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED FROM CENTRAL/ERN TX
NEWD TOWARD THE MID SOUTH. A MOIST AIRMASS RESIDES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER ERN TX/SRN AR/LA...CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S. HOWEVER...A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED AS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INCREASES
ALONG THE SWD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT TIME HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.
..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 11/29/2009
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