SWODY2
SPC AC 030508
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 PM CST MON NOV 02 2009
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MUCH AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS THE PAST FEW DAYS...AMPLIFICATION IS
UNDERWAY WITHIN THE STRONGER BELT OF A PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER
FLOW...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ELONGATED CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS FORMED OVER
THE MID LATITUDE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC. SUBSEQUENT PATTERN EVOLUTION
OVER THE PACIFIC HAS BEEN...AND REMAINS...A SOURCE OF CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY...AS A STRONG JET STREAK ROUNDS THE CREST OF AN UPSTREAM
RIDGE...AND BEGINS NOSING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
BUT...GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
REGIME...WITH THE LOW...AND A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT EVOLVING TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET TO THE NORTH...STEADILY APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC COAST WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AT LEAST A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE U.S.. WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE ROCKIES...A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSES DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z
THURSDAY.
THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION...WITH LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG A
RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW STORMS ALSO STILL POSSIBLE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS...WITHIN A MOIST POST-FRONTAL
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW REGIME. OTHERWISE...LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND DESTABILIZATION COULD SUPPORT
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MID/ SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST...NEAR THE GULF STREAM...LATE IN THE PERIOD.
..KERR.. 11/03/2009
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