SWODY2
SPC AC 160633
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CST MON NOV 16 2009
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LOW -- NOW ORGANIZING ACROSS WRN KS - IS FCST TO DEEPEN
DAY-1 WHILE MOVING ESEWD TOWARD OZARKS. DURING DAY-2
PERIOD...CYCLONE IS FCST TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED...AND MEANDER
SLOWLY OVER SRN/ERN MO WITH NET NWD MOVEMENT PROBABLE. SFC COLD
FRONT...ANALYZED ATTM FROM LOW OVER AR SWWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL TX AND
NWRN COAHUILA -- IS EXPECTED TO REACH VICINITY MID TN SWD ACROSS AL
AND WRN FL PANHANDLE AROUND 17/12Z. FRONT THEN SHOULD MOVE EWD
SLOWLY ACROSS ERN TN...WRN GA...FL PANHANDLE...TO NERN GULF W OF FL
PENINSULA BY END OF PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE FCST TO FALL FROM NOW THROUGH DAY-3 AS
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH EWD-SHIFTING SYNOPTIC
TROUGHING...OVER NERN PACIFIC. STRONGEST PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN PART FROM SPEED MAX NOW DIGGING SWD ACROSS BERING
STRAIT REGION...MOVING ASHORE NRN CA...WA AND ORE BETWEEN
18/06Z-18/12Z.
TWO MRGL GEN TSTM OUTLOOK AREAS ARE EVIDENT ATTM...
...ERN MO TO INDIANA...
THUNDER IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AND
EPISODIC. NWRN ARC OF LOW-LEVEL WAA CONVEYOR WILL BE JUXTAPOSED
WITH ERN FRINGES OF COLD-CORE REGION OF DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED THETAE TO YIELD RELATIVELY
UNINHIBITED MUCAPES UP TO ABOUT 200 J/KG...PRIMARILY DURING FIRST
SEVERAL HOURS OF PERIOD AS EXTENSION OF DAY-1 TSTM POTENTIAL.
...COASTAL PAC NW...
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT IS FCST TO STEEPEN LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH TIME...LEADING TO BUOYANCY ATOP MOIST NEAR-SFC
ENVIRONMENT AND EXTENDING INTO ICING LAYERS SUITABLE FOR LTG.
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UNINHIBITED 100-200 J/KG MLCAPE
ALONG COAST WILL BE MAINTAINED AS ENTIRE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN COOLS.
..EDWARDS.. 11/16/2009
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