SWODY2
SPC AC 170547
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST MON NOV 16 2009
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A LARGELY
CUT-OFF/VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD
OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. MODEST TSTM POTENTIAL FOR THE
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE FOCUSED ALONG A WEAKENING/OCCLUDING FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH
SOME TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE COASTAL AREAS OF WA.
...GA/CAROLINAS...
AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT ACROSS GA...SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT COULD RETREAT INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS...WEAK
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND LIMITED FORCING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SEEM
PROBABLE...LARGELY OWING TO THE PARENT UPPER LOW /CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST/ SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION. FURTHERMORE...WEAK BUOYANCY
/GENERALLY 400-750 J PER KG MUCAPE/ AND POOR LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE
LOWEST 3 KM PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER/LOW
LEVEL SHEAR...IMPLY THAT SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED.
..GUYER.. 11/17/2009
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