SWODY2
SPC AC 211716
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD SHOWING A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN TX/NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL DEAMPLIFY SUNDAY AS THIS
FEATURE TRACKS THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS. AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW
AND TRIPLE POINT LOCATED ALONG THE MS DELTA AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST... RESPECTIVELY...AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. AS
THIS PROCESS OCCURS...A NEW SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF
THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST /E OF GA/. MEANWHILE...GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE SERN STATES WITH THE NEWD TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST
A SURFACE FRONT RESIDING FROM NWRN FL TO SERN GA SHOULD REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
...NRN FL PENINSULA/SERN GA...
CURRENT THINKING REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE INITIAL DAY 2 OUTLOOK FOR AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
FOR A NON-ZERO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO. DEEP LAYER
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS/
ROTATING UPDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY-MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THESE
FAVORABLE KINEMATICS SHIFT NWD AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION REMAINS THE PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN PRECLUDING GREATER INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT ANY
AREAS THAT HAVE SOME SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY PROVE
SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WITH A LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE KINEMATICS. THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY
HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WWD OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS IS
PRIMARILY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TRIPLE POINT
LOW REACHING THIS REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND SUBSEQUENTLY
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO
AND/OR WATERSPOUT MOVING ONSHORE.
..PETERS.. 11/21/2009
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