SWODY2
SPC AC 221728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG ZONAL UPPER JET OVER THE MID LATITUDE
WESTERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC...A GENERALLY WEAKER SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
REGIME APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS INCLUDES THE LINGERING REMNANTS OF A CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH NOW LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND A
SIGNIFICANT POLAR TROUGH NOW DIGGING INTO/THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL EVOLVE INTO A
CLOSED LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS AS IT MIGRATES EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAKENING LEAD
SYSTEM...BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
MAY NOT SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN MUCH NORTH OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS/TEXAS COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z TUESDAY.
...SOUTHEAST...
ALTHOUGH A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG OR JUST EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...A TRAILING
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SLOW MOVING OR
QUASI-STATIONARY. IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA...MODELS SUGGEST THAT HEATING OF A
MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF WEAK TO
MODERATE CAPE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH A LINGERING
WEAKNESS IN MID-LEVEL INHIBITION...THIS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH COULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY EVENING...DESPITE WEAK MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION.
...CENTRAL STATES...
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE LATE MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
IMPULSES COULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER ...WITH STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST...AT BEST...AND DISPLACED FROM STRONGER
SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS STILL
SEEMS NEGLIGIBLE.
..KERR.. 11/22/2009
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