SWOD48
SPC AC 120824
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST THU NOV 12 2009
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS DAY 4 BEFORE CLOSING OFF BY DAY 5 OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
AND MID MS VALLEY. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH ECMWF INDICATING A
SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION THAN GFS. MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW
TIMING DIFFERENCES BY DAY 6. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE A SURFACE
LOW ON THE FRONT THAT WILL OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE MID
MS VALLEY. OWING TO PERSISTENT ELY TRAJECTORIES OVER THE N CNTRL AND
NERN GULF EMANATING FROM CP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN
STATES...MOISTURE RETURN IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY ROBUST. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
AIR WILL RETURN THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER
THE SRN PLAINS DAY 4 AND LOWER-MID MS VALLEY DAY 5 AS COLD FRONT
MOVES SEWD AND INTERACTS WITH MOIST AXIS. HOWEVER...CONCERN IS THAT
THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR A
MORE ROBUST THREAT. FOR THIS REASON WILL NOT DELINEATE A RISK AREA
AT THIS TIME.
ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEYOND DAY 5 AS THE LOW
OCCLUDES AND MOISTURE IS PINCHED OFF. PREDICTABILITY DECREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND DAY 6 AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE.
..DIAL.. 11/12/2009
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