SWOD48
SPC AC 170955
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2009
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS REFLECTS
INITIAL SPLIT FLOW REGIME SHOULD CONSOLIDATE/TREND TOWARD THE
EVOLUTION OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES BY LATE
THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A CONTINUANCE OF THE DAY 3
DESCRIBED SCENARIO...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES DURING THE
DAY 4/FRIDAY TO DAY 5/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WHILE SOME SEVERE TSTMS
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AROUND DAY
5/SATURDAY...MORE SO AS REFLECTED BY 00Z/17 ECMWF GUIDANCE AS
COMPARED TO 00Z/17 GEFS SOLUTIONS...PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
JUNCTURE IS THE LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF POTENTIAL INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF
A WARM/MOIST SECTOR AIRMASS IN ASSOCIATION WITH MODEST SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS AND RETREATING MARINE/WARM FRONT.
SUBSEQUENTLY...INDICATIONS ARE THAT TSTMS MAY INCREASE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST TX AND THE ADJACENT ARKLATEX ON DAY 7/MONDAY OWING
TO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/PARENT
CENTRAL STATES UPPER TROUGH...BUT SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
..GUYER.. 11/17/2009
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