SWOD48
SPC AC 230946
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
VALID 261200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE AND HIGH-AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINANT THE MEDIUM
RANGE. STRONG UPR TROUGH THAT EVOLVES OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE ERN SEABOARD
BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SEND A
CDFNT WELL S INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK. NEXT
SYSTEM IS FCST TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY IN HOW MUCH SRN STREAM ENERGY CAN BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE NRN STREAM UPR LOW. FAMILY OF ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
AND MEANS SUGGEST A SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...WHICH HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SVRL RUNS. IT IS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN TSTM THREATS OVER PARTS OF THE
SRN PLNS EWD ACROSS THE GULF CSTL REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GULF
MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY BE OF ONLY MODEST QUALITY AND GIVEN
VARIABILITY IN MODELS IN HANDLING OF THE WEEKEND TROUGH...FCST
CONFIDENCE IN A SVR EPISODE IS NOT HIGH.
..RACY.. 11/23/2009
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