SWOD48
SPC AC 260940
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009
VALID 291200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
CHALLENGES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. IN FACT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SLOW THE EWD EJECTION OF THE SRN BRANCH UPR LOW. AS A
RESULT...THE NRN STREAM COUNTERPART WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD INTO
THE NERN QUARTER OF THE NATION BY EARLY/MID-WEEK...FORCING A CDFNT
SEWD TO THE MID-ATLC CST...SERN STATES AND SWD INTO THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO BY NEXT TUESDAY 01 DEC. EVENTUALLY...THE UPR LOW WILL EJECT
ENE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS AND INTO THE LWR MS/TN VLYS AS THE NEXT NRN
STREAM IMPULSE DROPS SEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLNS...LIKELY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ADVECT
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE NWD WITH THE OLDER BAROCLINIC
ZONE...CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN GULF BASIN...REDEVELOPING TOWARD THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF CSTL LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND EVENTUAL
MAGNITUDE OF THE UPR TROUGH...A SFC LOW WILL PROBABLY FORM ALONG
THIS WRMFNT AND COULD DEVELOP INLAND OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CSTL
STATES IN THE DAY 7-8 TIME FRAME. THERE IS STILL A FAIR DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY BASED ON THE CONTINUED MODEL RUN-TO-RUN SLOWING OF THE
UPR SYSTEM AND THE QUALITY OF THE EXPECTED MOISTURE RETURN.
THUS...A HIGHER-END SVR TSTM RISK IS NOT JUSTIFIED ATTM.
..RACY.. 11/26/2009
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