SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120952
NCZ000-121045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CST THU NOV 12 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 120952Z - 121045Z
A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS
THE OUTER BANKS OF NC. A TORNADO WATCH CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY IF THE STRONGER ROTATING CELL ELEMENTS CAN APPROACH
PAMLICO SOUND.
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE GRADUALLY NWD EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE CAPE LOOKOUT NATIONAL SEASHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE MOREHEAD CITY WSR-88D VWP CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF FLOW AT 1 KM. THIS SUGGESTS A
THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH A MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE LINE IS MOVING SLOWLY
NEWD...THE THREAT MAY INCREASE AS THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE NWD INTO
A BIT STRONGER FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS CAPE HATTERAS.
INSTABILITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
OUTER BANKS REACHING THE UPPER 60S F. THE DISCRETE NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WW ISSUANCE IS
BEING CONSIDERED.
..BROYLES.. 11/12/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...
LAT...LON 35297548 35057596 34597664 34887687 35487661 35927614
36007576 35877544 35297548
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