DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151301
SWODY1
SPC AC 151259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
TWO-STREAM FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN DOMINANT NRN STREAM EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ESE FROM THE UPR
GRT LKS INTO NEW ENGLAND. IN THE WEAKER SRN BRANCH...POSITIVE TILT
TROUGH NOW OVER NM/NRN SONORA SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY E INTO W TX BY
12Z WED. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING LIKELY WILL OCCUR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE CNTRL GULF CST...ONCE NRN STREAM IMPULSE REACHES THE LWR LKS/NRN
APPALACHIANS EARLY WED.

...GULF CST/SRN GA AND N FL...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS KEPT OLD FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE
CNTRL GULF CST ENE INTO GA/SC MORE OR LESS STNRY OVER THE LAST 24
HRS. THE BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY...WHILE PROGRESSIVE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH CONTINUES SE INTO THE
NRN GULF AND OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST.

RICH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE OLD FRONT...ALONG WITH
MODERATE DEEP WSWLY FLOW. UNTIL NRN STREAM COLD FRONT DRIVES AXIS
OF LOW LVL ASCENT OFFSHORE...SETUP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
REGENERATIVE CONVECTION/STORMS. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE A FEW SMALL SCALE BOWS...SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY
OVER THE NWRN GULF/FAR SRN LA...WHERE GREATEST COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED CAPE AND UPR DIVERGENCE WILL EXIST.

FARTHER EAST...A MODEST WSWLY LLJ WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
OVER SRN GA/NRN FL AND SC...ON SRN FRINGE OF NRN STREAM UPR IMPULSE.
A FEW AREAS OF EMBEDDED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL
HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. BUT COMBINATION OF WEAK MID
LVL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS
THAT ANY SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLD...DESPITE 40-50 KT WSWLY 500
MB FLOW.

..CORFIDI.. 12/15/2009

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